Predicting the Onset and Progression of Atherosclerotic Plaques in Carotid Arteries through CFD simulations: UQ and Stochastic Sensitivity Analysis to Geometric and Clinical Parameters
Please login to view abstract download link
Atherosclerosis is an inflammatory cardiovascular disease characterized by the formation of plaques within the arteries. These plaques are the result of lipid accumulation over time and can obstruct blood flow to critical organs and downstream vessels. The objective of this study is to predict the onset of carotid plaques using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations and to assess the influence of both hemodynamic and geometric factors on the early stages of the disease. Ultimately, we aim to define risk criteria that take into account patient-specific geometric variables. Our approach combines CFD simulations with the plaque growth model from [1], where the growth of plaques is modeled using ordinary differential equations that depend on wall shear stress and Low-Density Lipoprotein (LDL) concentration in the intima. The intima thickening is simulated through a morphing technique, which adjusts the geometry to account for plaque development. The model, as noted in [2], accurately predicts the region where the disease is likely to develop and provides reliable predictions of plaque growth in its early stages. Using patient-specific data, we create a parametric model of carotid geometry to identify which geometrical factors in the carotid bifurcation are most influential in the formation and growth of atherosclerotic plaques. We apply stochastic collocation methods with sparse grids to generate continuous response surfaces in the parameter space. This enables us to analyze the sensitivity of various parameters and assess their impact on the displacement field and areas most prone to plaque formation in the bifurcation region. Finally, for selected carotid geometries, we examine the dynamic behavior of flow features such as vortical structures and wall shear stresses throughout the cardiac cycle, and how these factors influence the development of atherosclerotic plaques.